2022: Year In Review
2022 fell short of being a repeat of a very 90s-like 2021. However, 700+ homicides can hardly be considered a rousing success worthy of a ticker tape parade down State St.
Thankfully 2022 was not the predicted Total Shitshow v2.022 coming off of a very 90s-like 2021. Although, the third consecutive year of 700+ homicides does translate into a run rate of 60-75% higher than the late aughts/early teens lows. We have yet to hear if this is “unacceptable” or simply “better than last year” or most likely, “crime is down.”
2022: 735 killed, 2,937 wounded
2021: 855 killed, 3,745 wounded
2020: 798 killed, 3,451 wounded
2019: 521 killed, 2,291 wounded
2018: 592 killed, 2,465 wounded
2017: 685 killed, 2,935 wounded
2016: 808 killed, 3,658 wounded
2015: 513 killed, 2,546 wounded
2014: 464 killed, 2,230 wounded
2013: 455 killed, 2,185 wounded
A breakdown of the year’s idiocy shows:
655 shot & killed
29 stabbed
25 beaten
16 killed via other means
23 shot by police, 2 fatal
25 self defense incidents, 9 fatal
120 homicide-linked arrests
Averaged 10 people shot per day
All 365 days recorded a shooting
63 days were homicide-free
613 in serious or critical condition
639 (87%) males killed vs 96 females
568 (77%) Blacks, 131 Hispanics, 35 White/other
51 children 12 and younger shot, 13 fatal
Homicide age range: 0-91
Team Garfield Park led w/ 295 shot, 45 fatally
11th District won w/ 76 homicides
55 expressway shootings, 4 fatal
205 grazed
46 selfies
139 #ShotInTheAss
What We Thought Would Happen
With a pro-criminal, mildly retarded ruling class in place, along with a diminished police force, it wasn’t all that difficult to predict that a repeat of 2021 could be in the cards. We were a bit aggressive with our call of 800-900 homicides and another 3500+ wounded as the usual suspect neighborhoods lightened up on their killing by 22% - 50%.
For example, these neighborhoods (technically community areas) saw the biggest drops from 2021 to 2022:
Austin: 35% drop in homicides
Englewood: 22% drop in homicides
Garfield Park: 35% drop in homicides
Grand Crossing: 50% drop in homicides
These four accounted for 87 fewer homicides year over year, meaning just these four areas alone kept Chicago out of the 800 homicide zone. Overall lead-based activity for these areas was down by a third as well. Less lead, less dead.
What We Think Will Happen
As for 2023, we don’t see how this ongoing tire fire gets put out without some major changes from the top down. As we saw back in November, there doesn’t seem to be much appitite for change just yet. There was much choice to anyway.
With the SAFE-T Act pending IL Supreme Court approval/denial, additional shrinkage amongst the ranks of the CPD along with continued retardation of the Non-Essentials and supporting laptop, Zoomer class, we could easily see a repeat of 2022 and possibly even 2021 stretch goal. A 750-800 homicide year with another 3000-3500 shot and wounded is one possible and likely outcome for 2023. Some sort of rioting nonsense is always a high odds prop bet.
Of course, the mayoral election could assist with the course change, but at this point it’s anyone’s guess. There are more than a few running who would and could do worse than the current occupant of the 5th floor at City Hall.
What’s your prediction? Put it in the comments below and we’ll revist in a year - number of homicides and number of wounded. Price Is Right rules apply.
It’s Not Just Lead In The Air
Making robberies into larcenies. Making rapes disappear. You juke the stats, and majors become colonels. I've been here before. - Ronald ‘Prezbo’ Pryzbylewski, The Wire
We typically do not pay attention to other crimes as those numbers are highly susceptible to manipulation. In general it’s harder to hide bodies and people shot. In contrast to the Tribune headline above, we found this little footnote at the end of the year end press release interesting:
If we’re not mistaken, the 2022 numbers seem to be larger than those of years past. That’s odd. We’ve been told repeatedly that ‘crime is down’.
Thanks For Your Support
As always, many thanks to everyone who visited, liked, retweeted, emailed, hit the tip jar and/or picked up some tees or other crap this past year. Have yourself a safe and prosperous new year.
With the press of legislation and City / Prosecutorial policy to release offenders on no bail, to fail to prosecute criminals and / or to plead them down to releaseable misdemeanors, I see no way that Chalkie doesn't get over 800 this year.
Unless, of course, the storm clouds of inflation, economic hardship, energy / fertilizer shortages, or just the flailings of a .gov whose commands are ignored sets fire to the fragile societies which are our overcrowded cities.
About ten years ago, in what I think was an experiment, the food stamp accounts in Birmingham, AL did not reload on the 1st, due to a "computer error". By the 4th, the groceries and WalMarts in the neighborhoods occupied by the usual suspects had been looted and not resupplied.
The cards were reloaded by the 5th, but it took far longer to reopen stores.
Triggering events are not always obvious. If you think you see one and get out of town then, at worst, you have a short vacation.
If there is a triggering event and you stay, the outcome could be much worse.
Stay frosty, heads up, eyes out.
John in Indy
I'll go 40 shot in the loop this year. 699 total, largest increase in 016 and 017.